The evaluation of students’ progression in lower secondary education in Brazil: Exploring the path for equity

Abstract

Improving the access to and quality of compulsory education among children is one of the most promising measures to tackle poverty in the medium-long run. This study examines the individual sociodemographic and educational attributes related to the probability of students’ progression through lower secondary public education in Brazil. Based on the longitudinal design track of a cohort of Brazilian 5th grade public-school students, multilevel logistic regression models are applied to merged databases of the Educational Census and Prova Brasil, which have a national coverage. The response variable is whether the pupil was steadily promoted from the 5th to 9th grade, or not. The predicting variables include students’ prior achievement in reading and mathematics, early experience of grade repetition, preschool attendance, and several sociodemographic attributes such as gender, self-declared race/skin color, socioeconomic status, and proxies of being exposed to extreme poverty. A distinctive aspect of this study is the use of big identifiable data collected by the institute in charge of Brazilian educational evaluation. Our findings show that lower secondary education completion in due time is strongly associated with prior achievement, and that the main effect of students’ socioeconomic status is modest, having a moderator effect with maths. Estimates obtained also give emphasis to the cumulative effect of early grade repetition, preschool attendance, and extreme poverty exposure. Gender and race/ethnicity gaps are shown. Moreover, the students’ progression varies randomly across schools, municipalities, and states; this provides an opportunity for compelling insights into school and higher levels of public policy design, implementation, and evaluation. Results highlight the role of preschool and primary education in the path for equity. Policy and practice implications to reduce the educational equity gap are discussed.