Abstract
Due to uncertainty in bus loading, the evaluation of the available transfer capability (ATC) between two points in a network also becomes uncertain. The ATC is a measure of ‘available capacity’ in a power transmission system beyond already committed uses, i.e., beyond base case loading. A stochastic power flow algorithm can be used to help quantify and evaluate the uncertainty of the ATC. The limitations considered in the stochastic ATC algorithm are: circuit stability limits, transmission line thermal rating limits, and bus voltage magnitude limits. Transmission circuit outages, while important and also of a stochastic nature, are not considered. The analytical calculation of stochastic ATC is described and tested using the WECC 179 bus system. The analytical calculation is compared to a computationally intensive Monte Carlo calculation. The value of stochastic modeling of ATC relates to a realistic evaluation of power exchange.
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