The Evaluation of Real-Time Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) Stand-Alone Regional (SAR) Model Performance for the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Jili Dong,Bin Liu,Keqin Wu,Lin Zhu,Frank Marks,Chunxi Zhang,Avichal Mehra,Andrew T Hazelton,Weiguo Wang,Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan,Henry R Winterbottom,Zhan Zhang,Xuejin Zhang,Vijay Tallapragada

doi:10.3390/atmos11060617

Abstract

The next generation Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) has been developed recently in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to accelerate the improvement of tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts within the Unified Forecast System (UFS) framework. The finite-volume cubed sphere (FV3) based convection-allowing HAFS Stand-Alone Regional model (HAFS-SAR) was successfully implemented during Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) real-time experiments for the 2019 Atlantic TC season. HAFS-SAR has a single large 3-km horizontal resolution regional domain covering the North Atlantic basin. A total of 273 cases during the 2019 TC season are systematically evaluated against the best track and compared with three operational forecasting systems: Global Forecast System (GFS), Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model (HWRF), and Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic model (HMON). HAFS-SAR has the best performance in track forecasts among the models presented in this study. The intensity forecasts are improved over GFS, but show less skill compared to HWRF and HMON. The radius of gale force wind is over-predicted in HAFS-SAR, while the hurricane force wind radius has lower error than other models.

Highlights

A tropical cyclone (TC) is one of the major devastating natural disasters often resulting in loss of lives and property damage
Three Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are operated by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) at National Weather Service (NWS), in order to provide the essential guidance for TC prediction in the United States
These models include a global model known as the Global Forecast System (GFS), and two regional high-resolution NWP models, both with moving nests, known as the Hurricane

Summary

Introduction

A tropical cyclone (TC) is one of the major devastating natural disasters often resulting in loss of lives and property damage. In the United States, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) makes use of both global and high-resolution regional dynamical models for TC forecast. Atmosphere 2020, 11, 617 guidance during the hurricane season, including the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction. Three NWP models are operated by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) at National Weather Service (NWS), in order to provide the essential guidance for TC prediction in the United States. These models include a global model known as the Global Forecast System (GFS), and two regional high-resolution NWP models, both with moving nests, known as the Hurricane. FV3 applies the finite volume method on the gnomonic grid on a cubed sphere with computational efficiency

Methods

Results

Conclusion