The Eurosystem's Asset Purchase Programmes for Monetary Policy Purposes

Abstract

This paper analyzes the operation of the Eurosystem’s public and private assets purchases programmes for monetary policy purposes, quantifying the potential effect on the Italian economy. First we give an exhaustive account of the main transmission channels by which the purchases can be expected to affect economic activity and inflation. Then we assess the effects on the main channels of transmission to the economy and measure the impact on the main macroeconomic variables, applying the Bank of Italy’s quarterly model. For 2015-16 the purchase programme can be expected to make a significant contribution to the growth of output and of prices, of more than 1 percentage point in both cases. Among the channels examined, the largest contribution is judged to come through the depreciation of the euro and the reduction in the interest rates on government securities and bank loans. These effects are comparable in magnitude to those found by studies on the securities purchase programmes conducted in the United States and the United Kingdom.