Abstract
This paper examines the nature of changes within the EU–15 welfare states affected by the 2008 crisis. We try to answer the question of whether the differences that exist among different welfare state regimes, according to prevailing welfare state typologies, lead to different responses to the consequences of the crisis. Welfare state regimes are the result of different institutional perceptions of social risks hence it is realistic to expect specific responses to the effects of crisis among different welfare state regimes, and similar responses among the countries that belong to the same welfare state regimes. In order to recognize convergent vs. divergent processes, we perform a comparative analysis of the dynamics of the key welfare state determinants of the EU–15 countries, grouping according to welfare state regimes, in the pre-crisis and crisis periods. The results indicate that institutional rigidity and inherent inertia has remained a key factor of convergent welfare state processes in countries that belong to the Social Democratic and Corporatist welfare state regimes. Deviations from such a course are the most evident in the Mediterranean welfare state regimes, especially in Greece and Portugal where austerity measures have been formulated under the strong influence of the Troika.
Highlights
The welfare state in the EU–15, due to inherent inertia and institutional rigidity, in the early years of the crisis had not shown significant signs of slowdown and decrease
To test the hypothesis that countries that belong to the same welfare state regimes have similar reactions to economic shocks, it is necessary to adopt an appropriate definition of convergence
The findings indicate that the Great Recession of 2008, expressed, initially, through the decline in levels, and later, in the loss of the pre-crisis dynamics of production, has narrowed the real basis for redistribution and, the manifestations of the welfare state
Summary
The welfare state in the EU–15, due to inherent inertia and institutional rigidity, in the early years of the crisis had not shown significant signs of slowdown and decrease. The question is not whether the crisis will spill over into the welfare state, but rather how will the welfare state. Josifidis et al The European welfare state regimes: questioning the typology during the crisis reform in the newly emerging situation? To what extent can our existing theoretical frameworks of the welfare state typologies, developed for many years, be useful in understanding, and projecting, the future of the welfare state in the EU–15?. In the first part of the paper, we give a short literature survey on reactions of the EU–15 welfare state to the 2008 crisis. We analyze the impact and consequences of the crisis on absolute, as well as relative, position of the EU–15 welfare states, grouped according to the welfare state regimes. The final part of the paper summarizes the main findings and messages of the paper
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