The European distaste for US budget deficits: A regime shift explanation

Abstract

It is the general consensus that the chief stimulus to the European recovery from the 1982 recession was exports to the United States. It is therefore paradoxical that European official circles were critical of the swingeing US budget deficits throughout the 1980–85 period even though the budget deficits were the driving force behind the high US import demands. This paper argues that the European government had become more concerned with price stability and hence was obliged to pursue contractionary macro policies in order to offset the supply-side price pressure caused by the strong dollar. The Europeans were unhappy with the US budget deficits because they would have benefited more if the US recovery had been maintained by looser monetary but tighter fiscal policies. The contributions of this paper are: one, showing how a standard macro model can be modified to accomadate the endogenous European policy response; and two, testing the joint hypothesis of ‘new’ European concerns and of induced contraction ...