The Euro's Effect on Trade Balance Dynamics

Abstract

During the pre-EMU period changes in real effective exchange rate or faster-than-trading-partners growth rates Granger caused changes in trade balance in most of the EMU-12 countries. However, our data driven article provides evidence that after the adoption of euro, these Granger causalities disappeared. We decompose trade balances into intra balances (trade balance vis-a-vis the euro area) and extra balances (trade balance vis-a-vis the rest of the world), and find that the disappearance of dynamic feedback effect typically occurred in the intra balances rather than in the extra balances. Our results imply that debtor countries cannot reduce their trade deficits in the short-run by enhancing price competitiveness or by adopting austerity policies. Only in Finland the trade balance has improved (or deteriorated) as a result of real effective exchange rate depreciation (or appreciation) during the EMU period.