The EU’s Geopolitical Awakening Following the Russian Invasion of Ukraine: How the Commission Shifted from a Regulatory Market-Based Approach to a Geopolitical Approach in Its External Energy Policy

Abstract

The Ukraine invasion has been a watershed moment in EU-Russia gas relations, which has resulted in a shift in the European Commission’s (EC’s) approach towards Russia and European energy policy. Whilst the EC has traditionally followed a rule-based market approach in its external energy relations with Russia, there appears to have been a shift from the prevailing liberal market model to a more strategic and geopolitical approach focused on energy security.Although the EC has sometimes displayed tendencies of a realist nature, these realist elements in its external action have been exacerbated following the invasion of Ukraine. This article engages in a theoretical debate between the conceptualizations of the EU as a liberal actor versus the perception of the EU as a realist actor. Whilst there is literature to support both views, the debate can be further developed after the war in Ukraine. Since the invasion, the EC appears to have undertaken a more robust and coherent stance towards Russia in its commitment to decouple European economies from Russian gas to ensure EU energy security. The change in objectives illustrate a shift in the EU’s energy policy from the liberal paradigm of markets to geopolitics, as the new dynamics of EU-Russia energy relations, following the invasion of Ukraine.