The EU’s CFSP/CSDP in 2030: Towards an alternative vision of power?

Abstract

This article argues that the lack of an effective, coherent and progressive EU grand strategy that is able to streamline efforts and produce collective goods, both at home and in the world, is culpable for the EU’s gradual decline until 2030. The lack of European-wide strategic thinking creates the conditions for an existential crisis of the EU. The EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy/Common Security and Defence Policy is the most striking example: it fails to manage the EU27 expectations, build up sufficient military and civilian capabilities, deliver tangible results and, consequently, lacks credibility. This has repercussions for the EU’s level of ambition. Until 2030, more and more states drop out of EU initiatives and search for alternative fora to make their voices heard in international politics. The powerlessness of the EU also weakens its most important allies: the United States and NATO. This creates a power vacuum to be filled by more ambitious players, such as China or Russia, which seek to diffuse their view of global (dis)order. To avoid this future, we argue that the EU should (1) embrace an alternative vision of power, (2) strengthen the legitimacy of its internal and external policymaking and (3) engage strategically in global affairs on the basis of a firm commitment to NATO-EU cooperation.