Abstract
AbstractIn July 2015 an agreement on the so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action regarding Iran’s nuclear program was announced between Iran and the permanent members of the UNSC, Germany and the EU. The Iranian decision to comply with the results of the negotiations attracted much focus, both at the policy level and in scholarly debates. However, the foreign and security policy interests and possibilities of Iran in the MENA region have not been discussed very intensively, nor has there been much attention paid to how the international actors and in particular the EU were able to influence the Iranian policies and decisions. This article seeks to take up this challenge: firstly by analyzing to what degree the sanctions influenced the Iranian decisions on the nuclear issue; and secondly, by discussing how the sanctions regime affected the relations between Iran and the international actors, with a specific focus on the EU and the ability of Iran to pursue its foreign policy interests in the Levant and the Gulf. This article is published as part of a collection on analysing security complexes in a changing Middle East.
Highlights
This article analyses the specific role of the EU in connection with the negotiations with and sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran in the context of a changing Middle East since the Arab uprisings, where the problematic developments in several Arab states (Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen...) resulted in a more fragile and destabilized political situation in the Middle East region
Iran plays a significant role in the Gulf, where it takes part in a triangular rivalry with Iraq and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, in particular Saudi Arabia
Iran was challenged by what might be considered as the hegemonic power on the Arab side of the Gulf, Saudi Arabia, which at least regarding economic strength gained from the relative weakening of Iran following the pressure over the last years from the international sanctions, and in particular as a result of the oil embargoes
Summary
This article analyses the specific role of the EU in connection with the negotiations with and sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran in the context of a changing Middle East since the Arab uprisings, where the problematic developments in several Arab states (Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen...) resulted in a more fragile and destabilized political situation in the Middle East region. This article hypothesizes that (1) the high level of harm inflicted on the Iranian economy by external sanctions contributed to persuading the regime to come to terms with the sanctions regime; that (2) the specific role of the EU regarding the negotiations with and sanctions against Iran and in connection with that the relatively high degree of international consensus and cooperation between the sanctioning states added to the efficiency of the sanctioning regime; and that (3) the sanctions played a role in determining the Iranian ability to pursue its policies in the Levant and the Gulf security subcomplexes.
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