The ethics of uncertainty

Abstract

Uncertainty touches most aspects of life, especially when we make decisions that have consequences that we cannot predict. Leaving the house without an umbrella carries a risk because it could start to rain; investing in the stock market carries the risk of losing money. It is therefore natural that, whenever we make decisions with unpredictable outcomes, we weigh up the possible results and their risks and benefits. Of course, some decisions carry more severe risks than getting wet or losing money; the decision to approve a new drug or to ban certain chemicals in products can have far‐reaching consequences for health, the environment, society and economies. In such cases, where the lives of others are at stake, decision‐making and the handling of uncertainties have important ethical dimensions. A prudent strategy to deal with this ethical challenge is to diminish uncertainty by acquiring knowledge of the issue. When it comes to decisions that affect people's lives and health—the regulation of potentially harmful substances or diagnostic tests to predict an individual's propensity to develop a severe disease—carrying out research to diminish uncertainty and, consequentially, risks can become an ethical duty. If this is not possible—because decision‐makers cannot wait for the relevant research or the gaps in our knowledge are not accessible to scientific investigation—the precautionary principle is increasingly advocated and used as an alternative strategy to make decisions in light of uncertainties. However, the application of the precautionary principle itself can create dangers (Wiedemann & Schutz, 2005) that have to be weighed against the benefits of adopting it—so‐called iatrogenic risks (Wiener, 1998)—and therefore also has a serious ethical dimension that needs to be considered. In this viewpoint, we investigate the role of uncertainty in the field of practical ethics. This is a relatively new issue on the ethical research agenda, which began …