The estimation of yearly probability gain for seismic statistical model

Abstract

Based on the calculation method of information gain in the stochastic process presented by Vere-Jones, the relation between information gain and probability gain is studied, which is very common in earthquake prediction, and the yearly probability gain for seismic statistical model is proposed. The method is applied to the nonstationary Poisson model with whole-process exponential increase and stress release model. In addition, the prediction method of stress release model is obtained based on the inverse function simulation method of stochastic variable.