The Estimation of Wind Power Station on the Basis of Fuzzy Regression Model to Forecast the Speed and Direction of the Wind

Abstract

To forecast the wind speed and the angle of its direction, it is suggested to use autoregression based on the concept of fuzzy system, which is recognized as a fairly convenient modeling tool. The main goal of fuzzy regression analysis is to find a regression model that satisfies all the observed fuzzy data within specified optimality criterion. According to this method, the regression coefficient is fuzzy numbers, which can’t be expressed as a number of the interval with membership values. In this work, the wind speed and direction are predicted for the Far Eastern coast. It is shown that on this basis the power and generation of a wind power plant with the possibility of covering its load schedule, and the function of energy storage can be determined. High introduction of wind power plants into system leads to some inconveniences in the operation of operator systems, primarily due to unpredictable and volatile nature of wind speed, and wind power generated, respectively. Despite fact that the power generated at the wind form is not regulated by the system operator, accurate prediction of wind speed and the angle of its direction could solve this problem, thereby making a significant contribution to improving the reliability of power supply systems