The Estimation of Petroleum Reserves

Abstract

Published in Petroleum Transactions, AIME, Volume 57, 1917, pages 968–983. Introduction Sooner or later in the development of any natural resource it becomes highly desirable to know the quantity of this resource in the country as a whole, as well as of the part that is being developed, for the general course and conduct of the development work must be governed, to some extent, by the total supply available. An accurate estimate of the quantity of any natural resource is difficult to make; yet if one is diligent enough one can obtain a pretty accurate idea of the quantity of marketable timber, the acreage of tillable land, or the horsepower that may be developed from the streams, for these are things that may be measured. But any attempt to estimate the quantity of some mineral in the ground appears to enter the realm of imagination and it seems that the estimate can be nothing more than a blind guess. It may appear to be especially futile to attempt to determine the quantity of oil and gas that is available in the ground, for these minerals are so vagrant that even if the quantity now available should be known quite exactly, the quantity that will eventually be obtained may be much less, for certain losses in the extraction of both oil and gas are unavoidable, and just what these losses will be cannot be predicted. Though necessarily inaccurate, estimates of such mineral reserves are, however, of distinct value, for they summarize the existing knowledge of the deposits of the mineral and thus enable those who are interested in some industry that depends in one way or another on this mineral to formulate a rational commercial policy. Some time ago, when the price of gasoline suddenly rose in a rather spectacular manner, the writer was one of the U. S. Geological Survey geologists called upon to help to estimate the quantity of oil that could be obtained in the United States, for the fear had become widespread that perhaps the rate of increase in the price of gasoline was a measure of the rate of depletion of the supply of petroleum. T.P. 057–47