The estimation of life-time for the patients who acquired resistance to standard chemotherapies.

Abstract

e19535 Background: Prognostication is important for the advanced cancer patients to make the most for the rest of their life. We examined the accuracy of oncologists’ clinical predictions of survival (CPS) and the factors that oncologists referred to in cancer patients who acquired resistance to standard chemotherapies. We also examined how oncologists share the information about the survival with patients and their family. Methods: Fourteen oncologists treating major adult solid malignancies (breast, lung, gastrointestinal, pancreatic, gynecologic cancer and sarcoma) participated in this observational prospective cohort study between Oct 2010 and Oct 2011. The oncologists were asked to fill in the questionnaire about CPS when patients acquired resistance to standard chemotherapies. Results: The data of 52 patients were available for analysis. The median CPS was 92 days (Interquartile range [IQR], 61 - 168), and the median actual survival (AS) was 80 days (IQR, 35 to 148). The median difference between CPS and AS (|CPS-AS|) was 21 (IQR, -26 to 50) days. According to Pearson correlation between CPS and AS (r = 0.55, p < 0.001), log(CPS) and log(AS) (r = 0.69, p < 0.001) and spearman correlation between CPS and AS (r = 0.66, p < 0.001), it was statistically considered CPS corresponded to AS. The proportion of patients with |CPS-AS| were as follows; within a week, 6%; within 2 weeks, 14%; and within 4weeks, 42%. Concordance rate between CPS and AS was more accurate in gastric and ovarian cancer while it depended on the oncologists. Although, age, oral intake, the number of chemotherapy regimens and the prognostic factors that oncologists referred to were not related with |CPS-AS|. Eighteen patients (35 %) were informed about the prognosis and thirty-seven patients (71 %) were provided with information about palliative care unit. Thirty-three patients (64 %) received best supportive care alone and eighteen patients (35 %) received further chemotherapies. Conclusions: Oncologists’ predictions generally correlated with AS. As long as the prediction of survival is based on the prognostic factors that oncologists referred to, CPS can be correct to within as least 4 weeks.