The estimation of HIV prevalence for women of child bearing age in New York City

Abstract

As the AIDS epidemic developed in the United States, emphasis turned from estimates of HIV incidence in male populations to estimates of HIV prevalence in the larger population, and to estimates of prevalence in sentinel populations. The concern was that heterosexual contact with male intravenous drug users was responsible for increased HIV prevalence among young women. Increases in HIV infection in women of child bearing age would result in increases in the number of HIV infected children. Thus, women of child bearing age would become an especially important sentinel population. The Newborn Seroprevalence Project was part of a national population-based survey to assess HIV prevalence among women of child bearing age. Blood from every newborn was obtained and tested for the HIV antibody. The observed proportion of seropositive births obtained during a given year in a given age/race/region stratum was used to estimate HIV prevalence of all women in that stratum. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the stratum and population-specific HIV prevalence and prevalence proportions for New York City women of child bearing age in 1991, as well as to estimate the bias that results from using the sample proportion in these efforts.