The estimation and robustness of FMSY and alternative fishing mortality reference points associated with high long-term yield

Abstract

Equations for equilibrium yield and biomass are presented and used to derive FMSY and alternative reference points (ARPs). ARPs are analogues of the traditional points based on yield-per-recruit (YPR) or spawning stock-per-recruit (SPR) (F0.1, F40%, F50%), but refer to the equilibrium total yield or biomass. The method combines YPR and SPR analysis with stock–recruitment relationships. The sensitivity of FMSY and ARPs to the range of available stock–recruitment data, recruitment variance, various steepness levels in the stock–recruitment models, assessment variance, and bias are tested. The analysis showed that in most cases, F40%B and F50%B, defined by the equilibrium biomass (B), were the most robust relative to the different sources of uncertainty. However, in the case of the misspecification of the stock–recruitment relationship, FMSY showed superior performance. F40%B for the Beverton and Holt stock–recruitment model and F50%B for the Ricker recruitment model can be recommended as conservative fishing mortalities associated with high long-term yield. For the considered steepness, they produced yield up to 5%–10% lower than yield at FMSY.