Abstract
The ESTE system is running in nuclear crisis centers at various levels of emergency preparedness and response in Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Austria, Bulgaria, and Iran (at the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)). ESTE is a decision-support system that runs 24/7 and serves the crisis staff to propose actions to protect inhabitants against radiation in case of a nuclear accident. ESTE is also applicable as a decision-support system in case of a malicious act with a radioactive dispersal device in an urban or industrial environment. The dispersion models implemented in ESTE are the Lagrangian particle model (LPM) and the Puff trajectory model (PTM). We describe model approaches as implemented in ESTE. The PTM is applied in ESTE for the dispersion calculation near the point of release, up to 100 km from the point of a nuclear accident. The LPM for general atmospheric transport is applied for short-range, meso-scale and large-scale dispersion, up to dispersion on the global scale. Additionally, a specific micro-scale implementation of the LPM is applied for urban scale dispersion modeling. The dispersion models of ESTE are joined with radiological-consequences models to calculate a complete spectrum of radiological parameters—effective doses, committed doses, and dose rates by various irradiation pathways and by various radionuclides. Finally, radiation protective measures, like sheltering, iodine prophylaxis, or evacuation, evaluated on the base of predicted radiological impacts, are proposed. The dispersion and radiological models of the state-of-the-art ESTE systems are described. The results of specific analyses, like the number of particles applied, the initial spatial distribution of the source, and the height of the bottom reference layer, are presented and discussed.
Highlights
The key elements of decision-support systems (DSSs) for emergency preparedness and response in case of nuclear and radiological emergencies are assessment of the level of threat to the population due to the predicted or already released radioactivity to the environment, and recommendations of actions to secure the health of the inhabitants in the first place
The Puff trajectory model (PTM) implemented in ESTE is a puff transport model combined with a Gaussian dispersion model in the horizontal direction and with a model based on a diffusion equation in the vertical direction
The ESTE system is a decision-support system for nuclear crisis centers that estimates the source term based on the known or evaluated state of the facility’s systems, and models atmospheric transport of radioactive material leaked to the atmosphere as a result of an accident at a nuclear facility
Summary
The key elements of decision-support systems (DSSs) for emergency preparedness and response in case of nuclear and radiological emergencies are assessment of the level of threat to the population due to the predicted or already released radioactivity to the environment, and recommendations of actions to secure the health of the inhabitants in the first place. The simulation shows modeled atmospheric dispersion in the northern hemisphere of the released I-131 (equal to 1.5 × 1017 Bq as estimated by ESTE, based on a reverse estimation from the dose rate measured in the area of the nuclear power plant (NPP), and on assumption of partial core damage or partial melting in SFP [12]). If the calculations are performed at a large or global scale where the modeled phenomenon is on the level of several days or weeks (for example, modeling of the atmospheric transport and impacts of the Fukushima accident to central Europe), the time limit for duration of the calculation is less strict, allowing a longer calculation and a higher number of modeled particles. The factors represent an approach of semi-infinite cloud of constant concentration, i.e., the point of interest, either a radiation monitor or a human, is immersed in the activity of the air hemisphere with constant concentration
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