Abstract
As the demand of fossil fuel declines, improving the infrastructure development of fossil fuel supply chain is the efficient way to reduce cost and carbon emissions. This paper analyzes the impact of declining oil demand on the infrastructure development of the oil products delivery system. A mathematical model is proposed to simulate the transportation and storage schemes, and then is generalized to different forms based on four disposal strategies of idle depots and five sub-scenarios of declining demand. The discussed disposal strategies include storage of other fuels, relocation, destruction and to be sold. A comprehensive evaluation system is also formulated to evaluate the utilization efficiency of the transit depots. Finally, the oil products delivery system in Northwestern China is used to validate the proposed method. Compared with the current system, improving the utilization rate of the depot under declining demand sub-scenarios can improve the economic efficiency by 10.6%, 8.9%, 17.3%,21.3% and 21.6%. With the decline in demand, the economy of destruction of transit depot is better than others, while the environmental benefit of storing other fuels is better than other strategies.
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