The epidemiological declining in the human fertility rate in the arab world for 10 years period 2011–2021

Abstract

Recently, there has been worldwide growing interest on profiling the human fertility of populations because there has been a noticeable global decline in fertility rate, leading to increased attention toward reproductive health and fertility.The decline in fertility of population of the Arab World was investigated for the 10 years period between 2011–2021. The Arab World was classified into three regional blocks; Block-1 Arabian Peninsula countries: Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Yemen. Block-2 Fertile Crescent Arab countries: Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, West Bank and Gaza. Block-3 African Arab countries: Algeria, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Somalia, Sudan, Tunisia. Data on fertility rates for the 10 years period between 2011–2021 were collected from the World Bank for Arab countries. Statistical analysis along with decline in the fertility rates were determined. Results: Fertility rates varied across Arab countries in 2011 and 2021, with notable decline ranging from 24.3% to 3.8%, except for Algeria, with zero decline. Countries that exhibited significant decline were Jordan (24.3%) followed by Iraq (22.2%) then Yemen (19.1%); Whereas, countries that exhibited slight fertility decline were Libya (3.8%), followed by Tunisia (4.5%), Lebanon (4.5%) and Kuwait (4.5%). On another note, lowest fertility rate was observed in UAE as maintained between 1.7% and 1.5% and the highest fertility rate was observed in Somalia as maintained between 7.3% and 6.3% for 2011 and 2021 respectively. Conclusion: The present study reveals the declining-trend in fertility rate across Arab countries, influenced by variable factors. Therefore, we recommend to the Council of the Health Ministries in the Arab-League to focus on investigating the fertility decline as an important parameter for public health in the Arab world to maintain natural balanced fertility rate.As some non-biological factors surrounding the Arabian region, such as instability, war, migration, the present study did not aim to include the influence of war and migration on fertility because both war and migration are non-biological external factors and both are not among the WHO criteria for fertility determination which based of the population growth rate of population under normal living conditions.