The Epidemiological and Economic Impact of a Potential Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreak in Austria.

Tatiana Marschik,Beate Pinior,Simon Stockreiter,Friedrich Schmoll,Annemarie Käsbohrer,Ian Kopacka,Jörg Hiesel,Andrea Höflechner-Pöltl

doi:10.3389/fvets.2020.594753

Abstract

An outbreak of foot-and mouth disease (FMD) in an FMD-free country such as Austria would likely have serious consequences for the national livestock sector and economy. The objective of this study was to analyse the epidemiological and economic impact of an FMD outbreak in Austria in order to (i) evaluate the effectiveness of different control measures in two Austrian regions with different livestock structure and density, (ii) analyse the associated costs of the control measures and the losses resulting from trade restrictions on livestock and livestock products and (iii) assess the resources that would be required to control the FMD outbreak. The European Foot-and-Mouth Disease Spread Model (EuFMDiS) was used to simulate a potential FMD outbreak. Based on the epidemiological outputs of the model, the economic impact of the outbreak was assessed. The analysis of the simulations showed that the success of control strategies depends largely on the type of control measures, the geographical location, the availability of sufficient resources, and the speed of intervention. The comparison of different control strategies suggested that from an economic point of view the implementation of additional control measures, such as pre-emptive depopulation of susceptible herds, would be efficient if the epidemic started in an area with high livestock density. Depending on the chosen control measures and the affected region, the majority of the total costs would be attributable to export losses (e.g., each day of an FMD epidemic costs Austria € 9–16 million). Our analysis indicated that the currently estimated resources for surveillance, cleaning, and disinfection during an FMD outbreak in Austria would be insufficient, which would lead to an extended epidemic control duration. We have shown that the control of an FMD outbreak can be improved by implementing a contingency strategy adapted to the affected region and by placing particular focus on an optimal resource allocation and rapid detection of the disease in Austria. The model results can assist veterinary authorities in planning resources and implementing cost-effective control measures for future outbreaks of highly contagious viral diseases.

Highlights

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease affecting cloven-hoofed animals, which is known to spread rapidly within and between herds (1–5)
Under the reference simulation scenario the median (5th and 95th percentiles) number of infected farms was 81 (1–427), which corresponds to 0.1% of the total number of FMD-susceptible farms in Austria
The implementation of the preemptive depopulation control strategy caused the lowest total costs of e 460 (221–853) million (i.e., 15% less compared to the reference scenario; Table 3) and the protective vaccination control strategy resulted in the highest median total costs of e 581 (312–1,043) million

Summary

Introduction

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease affecting cloven-hoofed animals, which is known to spread rapidly within and between herds (1–5). The FMD epidemic in the United Kingdom (UK), Ireland, The Netherlands and France in 2001 was one of the costliest livestock disease outbreaks reported. Despite the immediate preventive measures in other European countries, epidemics of FMD were reported in France, Ireland and the Netherlands within a month (4). During this crisis, different simulation models were used in attempt to predict the disease dynamics in the affected countries. Different simulation models were used in attempt to predict the disease dynamics in the affected countries This was one of the first time that models had been used during an outbreak to support veterinary authorities in their decisionmaking process (12). There is a lack of knowledge about the extent of the spread of FMD with the current geographical distribution of farms, dynamics of livestock movements and availability of resources to effectively minimize the spread and associated economic consequences of an FMD outbreak in these countries (22)

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