Abstract

This paper aims to integrate novel coronavirus daily cases in SAARC countries; India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, Maldives and Bhutan to forecast the epidemic trend of COVID-19 by using logistic model. The recent trend of coronavirus cases were analyzed from the COVID-19 epidemiological data for SAARC countries from 23 January 2020 to 31 May 2021. The final size, growth rate parameter and point of inflection of COVID-19 for each countries were calculated by fitting the logistic curve with the cumulative cases. The graphical patterns of COVID-19 daily cases reflect that its second wave impact is more devastating than the first wave in SAARC countries. The increasing trend of COVID-19 cases in these countries was well described by logistic model with coefficient of determination greater than 0.96. The predictive final size of the second wave infections is maximum for India which is 19.8 million with growth rate parameter of 0.08 and inflection time of 68 days whereas the predictive final size is minimum for Afghanistan which is 0.041 million with growth rate parameter of 0.06 and inflection time of 71 days. The logistic model is helpful in predicting the trajectory of the infected cases in a country if the current scenario of this type of infectious disease remains same. Also, it helps the government to frame policy decisions and necessary actions that controls the transmission of COVID-19 in the South Asian region.

Talk to us

Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have

Schedule a call

Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.