The Environmental Modeling Center Verification System (EVS): Real-time verification of Unified Forecast System (UFS) models

Abstract

Currently in the final stages of development, the Environmental Modeling Center Verification System (EVS) is a real-time software system that, once implemented on NCEP supercomputers, will provide verification statistics and graphics for NCEP operational forecast systems. Using the Model Evaluation Toolkit (METplus) suite of verification software, the EVS will use both real-time forecast output and environmental observations to create information on the performance of all NCEP environmental models and products, which are either derived or directly created from the Unified Forecast System (UFS) suite of models. The EVS will generate hundreds of metrics for the suite, which when viewed on EMC webpages will provide a comprehensive and up-to-date overview of the performance of NCEP forecast systems for the general public, model developers, researchers, and decision makers. As EMC works with the international modeling community to develop modeling systems that are based on the Unified Forecast System (UFS), EMC is now evolving towards using the EVS for a single, unified verification software system for real-time verification analysis, evaluation of new and upgraded systems proposed for NWS operations, and as a capability to determine systematic errors and biases that illustrate areas for potential model improvements. This project, led by EMC’s Verification, Post-Processing, and Product Generation Branch (VPPPGB) aims to unify EMC’s verification strategy under one maintainable and supportable software system, and to use performance metrics that have been vetted and peer-reviewed by the UFS community via the Developmental Testbed Center’s 2021 UFS Metrics Workshop.