The Environmental Kuznets Curve: Industrial Application For Forecasting Waste Generation And Emissions Of Harmful Substances

Abstract

Purpose. To determine sustainable development conditions according to the criteria of emissions of harmful substances and waste generation when modelling impact factors of the parameters and general environmental situation in Ukraine. Methods. In the research general scientific (analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, analytical grouping) and special (abstraction, modelling, etc.) methods of studying economic phenomena and processes have been used. Results. For modelling of national sustainable development parameters by the parameters of emissions of harmful substances and waste generation it has been proposed to apply sectoral approach and the model of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC). It has been proved that the EKC model should be used not only to model parameters of emissions of harmful substances, but also for waste generation. Besides, it has been proved that it is necessary to take into account not only national level indicators, but also the contribution of the leading sectors driving national economy. Modelling has been carried out for the following industries: processing; mining and quarry development; agriculture, forestry and fisheries; supply of electricity, gas, steam and conditioned air; transport, warehousing, post and courier services. The models are based on correlation between GDP, average nominal income per capita, environmental costs, waste generation and emissions of harmful substances at the national level and by its leading industries. It has been determined that reaching the "turning point" on sectoral EKCs correlates waste generation and emissions with industry`s rate of remuneration, value added (sectoral GDP) and sectoral investment in environmental protection in the context of industry`s specifics. It has been demonstrated that in Ukraine the "turning point" on the EKC has been provided by 20% of economically active population in industries that generate 46% of emissions amid country's average nominal income per employee and steady growth of environmental expenses for at least two years. Conclusions. It has been proved that the EKC for Ukraine should be analyzed by the sectors of national economy. To form effective national environmental policy, sectoral EKCs should be applied to determine emissions of harmful substances and waste generation. It has been determined that the key factor to ensure country`s sustainable development is environmental investment both at the national level and by its driving economic sectors. Thus, the sectoral EKC reflects the progress towards industries` sustainable development that form main revenue receipts of the government and determine the rate of remuneration in the real sector. Modelling of the EKC parameters for waste and emissions of harmful substances fully corresponds to the trends of sustainable economic growth and its transition to the innovative type of development.