The Enlargement Policy of the European Union – Its Present and Future in the Context of the War in Ukraine 2022

Abstract

The aim of the current research paper is to examine the present and future of the enlargement policy of the European Union in the context of the complex realities of the war in Ukraine and the new EU initiatives and conceptual ideas related to the Enlargement Strategy from 2018, the new negotiation methodology from 2020, the concepts of gradual accession to the Union with a transitional consolidation clause, the European Political Community and a new European Convention. For the purpose of the study, different methods of analysis have been used. Some of them include: an innovative 'portfolio thinking' approach, revealing the extent of the EU's innovative spirit in creating new trajectories of engagement with the Western Balkans and Eastern Partnership countries, and emphasising the importance of de-risking so that the above presented initiatives are recognised as an opportunity rather than an obstacle to the European perspective; experimental use of artificial intelligence by the OpenAI research laboratory in developing potential scenarios for the future of enlargement policy in the short, medium and long term. The study has its added value in view of the upcoming European elections in 2024, the growing geopolitical aspirations of Russia and China in Eastern and South-Eastern Europe, the need to prepare both the EU and candidate countries for future enlargements and for the challenges of tomorrow.