The End of the Democratic Era? 1994 and the Future of Congressional Election Research

Abstract

Using data from the 1994 and earlier National Election Studies, this essay examines the causes and consequences of the Republican takeover of the House of Representatives and its implications for research on congression al elections. The dramatic Republican gains in the 1994 midterm election appear to reflect long-term shifts in the partisan and ideological loyalties of the U.S. electorate and not just short-term issues that favored the GOP Between 1990 and 1994, the American electorate became increasingly Republican and increasingly conservative while the Democratic party was perceived as increasingly liberal. Democrats will probably find it difficult to regain most of the seats that the party lost in 1994 because Republican identifiers outnumber Democratic identifiers by a wide margin in these districts. The era of Democratic domination may be giving way to a new era of intense competition for control of the House of Representatives. In light of these developments, more research is needed on the extent and consequences of partisan and ideological realignment in the U.S. electorate, variability among congressional contests, and the effects of congressional campaigns on voter decision making.