Abstract
After two decades of exceptionally fast growth, the Chinese economy is faltering under the effects of East Asia's crisis, the inherent limitations of the state-dominated system and environmental problems. Both economists and the Chinese government agree on the need greatly to reduce subsidies to loss-making state enterprises, and to lay off millions of their workers. This could re-establish the alliance between protesting workers and political dissidents, similar to that which culminated in the 1989 Tiananmen demonstrations. Furthermore, so much of the central state's power has leaked away to corrupt local administrative élites and their 'crony-capitalist' business allies that it is no longer certain whether Beijing is strong enough to implement radical and painful changes.
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