Abstract
We argue the need to improve climate change forecasting for ecology, and importantly, how to relate long-term projections to conservation. As an example, we discuss the need for effective management of one species, the emperor penguin, Aptenodytes forsteri. This species is unique amongst birds in that its breeding habit is critically dependent upon seasonal fast ice. Here, we review its vulnerability to ongoing and projected climate change, given that sea ice is susceptible to changes in winds and temperatures. We consider published projections of future emperor penguin population status in response to changing environments. Furthermore, we evaluate the current IUCN Red List status for the species, and recommend that its status be changed to Vulnerable, based on different modelling projections of population decrease of ≥50% over the current century, and the specific traits of the species. We conclude that current conservation measures are inadequate to protect the species under future projected scenarios. Only a reduction in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will reduce threats to the emperor penguin from altered wind regimes, rising temperatures and melting sea ice; until such time, other conservation actions are necessary, including increased spatial protection at breeding sites and foraging locations. The designation of large-scale marine spatial protection across its range would benefit the species, particularly in areas that have a high probability of becoming future climate change refugia. We also recommend that the emperor penguin is listed by the Antarctic Treaty as an Antarctic Specially Protected Species, with development of a species Action Plan.
Highlights
The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) first entered into force on 21 March 1994, just over 25 years ago
In addition to the existing threat criteria (IUCN, 2017), International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) is developing a ‘trait-based’ approach for assessing a species vulnerability to climate change; we recognise that this approach has considerable value, in addition to the robust demographic modelling analyses already undertaken for emperor penguins (Ainley et al, 2010; Jenouvrier et al, 2014, 2017)
Trull et al (2018) stress that in order to complement existing processes of estimating IUCN Red List status, climate change-specific assessments are needed and that these could be developed using a number of different approaches, ranging from mechanistic models to trait-based assessments, and that trait-based climate change vulnerability assessments have been recognised by the IUCN (Foden et al, 2013)
Summary
The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) first entered into force on 21 March 1994, just over 25 years ago. Relevant and direct ecological links can be challenging to identify, since a number of confounding factors, such as other anthropogenic impacts, including pollution, habitat loss and interactions with fisheries (Trathan et al, 2015; Ropert-Coudert et al, 2019), may alter associations between climate and seabird demography (Oro, 2014) This is exacerbated because biological datasets are often short, or do not cover biologically important stages, such as post-breeding dispersion, or other key life history periods (Isles and Jenouvrier, 2019). The emperor penguin is one of the few species (possibly the only one) for which we have modelled colony population forecasts for the global population over the entire species range (Jenouvrier et al, 2014) Given this body of work, it is perhaps surprising that conservation actions have been slow to emerge. We consider the emperor penguin an exemplar for other species, and discuss its life history and ecological background, future climate change and effects on the species, re-analysis of the IUCN Red List threat status, and methods for protecting the emperor penguin, before drawing together our key conclusions
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