The emergent past: past natural and human disturbances of trees can reduce their present resistance to drought stress

Abstract

Forest tree growth is primarily explained, modelled, and predicted depending on current age or size, environmental conditions, and competitive status in the stand. The accumulated size is commonly used as a proxy for a tree's past development. However, recent studies suggest that antecedent conditions may impact present growth by epigenetic, transcriptional, proteomic, or metabolic changes alongside physiological and structural properties. Here, I analysed the ecological memory effect embedded in the xylem as a tree-ring structure. I used 35 mature Norway spruces (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.) and 36 European beeches (Fagus sylvatica L.) of the Kranzberg Forest water retention experiment KROOF in South Germany to scrutinise how their past development determines the growth of control plots and plots with 5-year water retention. I hypothesised that the current size and growing conditions determine tree growth and drought stress resistance. Metrics quantifying the trees’ recent and past growth, and correlation and linear mixed models with random effects revealed the following ecological memory effects. (1) For both species, the progressive growth course, low inter-annual growth variation in the long term, and low growth deflections in the recent past increased the growth resistance to drought. (2) The correlation between the past growth metrics and current stress reactions revealed that legacy effects could reach back 5–30 years; I found short- and long-term ecological memory. (3) Parameters of model prediction of the basic model with only size as a predictor of tree growth could be improved. The results suggest differences in the internal stem structure and ring pattern cause-specific differences in the trees' functioning and growth. I conclude that a long-term progressive increase and low variation in ring width may improve water conduction and reduce embolism in both species. Annual growth variation and low growth events in the recent past may have primed the morphology and allocation of the Norway spruce to better resist drought. The strong reduction in current growth, drought resistance by irregular growth, and past growth disturbances reveal a memory effect embedded in the tree ring pattern, suggesting further exploration and consideration in tree monitoring, growth modelling, and silvicultural prescriptions.