The Emergence of Differential Fertility in Urban Egypt

Abstract

Egypt is a classic example of a modernizing society that has already experienced a marked drop in fertility. Projections for the future need to now consider the time when Egypt will enter the next phase of demographic transition that is a declining birthrate. If demographic theory is correct - the beginning of an overall decline in fertility will be signaled by the emrgence within the urban population of fertility differences by socioeconomic class - the presence or absence of fertility differentials in urban Egypt needs to be examined if an estimate is to be made of how close this country is to ending her period of explosive growth. Data from the Census of 1960 concerning the number of her period of explosive growth. Data from the Census of 1960 concerning the number of children ever born by age of wife within given duration-of-marriage classes; education of wife within the same duration-of-marriage classes; and ocupation of husband by duration-of-marriage class are analyzed. The analysis reveals that education appears to be a most significant variable in the fertility of urban Egyptian women. There is a clear inverse relationship between the educational attainment of wives and the number of children born by them. Among women married for less than 5 years the strength of this variable is almost obscured by the operation of what appears to be a universal pattern of immediate unspaced childbearing regardless of educational level. However among women married for longer duration differences in education are increasingly reflected in fertility differentials. It appears probable from the data that at least among women married less than 20 years those who married between the ages of 20-25 had the highest fertility rates while those marrying later had significantly lower rates. Regarding occupation of hysband ranking by class is inversely correlated with fertility within each of the duration-of-marriage intervals although the range of variation is not nearly so great as that apparent when the independent variable was the wifes educational level.