The elements of applied avalanche forecasting: Part II: The physical issues and the rules of applied avalanche forecasting

Abstract

This paper (Part II) constitutes the second of a two part series to define the seven elements of avalanche forecasting. Part I contains the first four elements which are needed to present the human issues. This paper contains the last three elements which deal mostly with the physical issues and their use in the decision-making process. Some basic rules of applied avalanche forecasting are included here, for the first time, to illustrate physically based principles which are used in applied avalanche forecasting and their link to data analysis and decisions. Since the seven elements of applied avalanche forecasting are strongly connected, the reader should consult Part I (this journal issue) as a prelude to the present paper. Part II contains sections about data and information, scale issues in time and space, decision making and errors and physical rules of applied forecasting. Since all seven elements of applied avalanche forecasting are connected, Part II does not stand alone.