The Electricity Generation Dispatch in Mexico: An Uncertain Road towards Sustainability

Abstract

A comprehensive assessment was conducted for the electricity dispatch in the Mexican National Interconnected System for the 2017–2021 period, as well as the projected period of 2022–2030, with special attention on emissions and the transition to clean energy. The reported official generation data for the 2017–2021 period were compared to the results of both one- and multi-node dispatch modeling. The officially reported generation mix was found to be sub-optimal in terms of costs and emissions. A small part of the differences can be traced back to transmission constraints. Some of the remaining discrepancies can be explained by out-of-merit order dispatch favoring fossil fuel power plants. While transmission constraints were not critical for the 2017–2021 period, an increasing unbalance between regions with cost-effective generation (exporting regions) and importing regions was found, calling for inter-region transmission corridor reinforcements in the near future. The 2022–2030 emissions dramatically depend on the contemplated scenario. The existing project pipeline would allow for a 45% fraction of clean electricity by 2024, but the projection of current policies, with a renewed focus on generation from fossil fuels, makes a reduced generation from clean sources more likely. A clear policy path is required to bring Mexico’s emissions in line with its national and international clean energy and climate change mitigation goals.