Abstract
Abstract A formal model of legislative turnover is developed for elections to Dail Eireann. Parameters are then estimated using the elections of 1982 and the 1987 election. The model is analysed with regard to legislative turnover and the movement of women into the Dail. Conclusions are that there will be very little growth in the number of women TDs over the next several elections due to the present very high incumbent return rate. Bias against new women candidates is of minor consequence while the low return rates of women incumbents, compared to men, has a strong negative impact on the proportions of women in the Dail.
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