Abstract
Abstract. Ice cores are one of the most valuable paleo-archives. Records from ice cores provide information not only about the amount of dust in the atmosphere, but also about dust sources and their changes in the past. In 2009, a 182 m long ice core was recovered from the western plateau of Mt Elbrus (5115 m a.s.l.). This record was further extended after a shallow ice core was drilled in 2013. Here we analyse Ca2+ concentrations, a commonly used proxy of dust, recorded in these Elbrus ice records over the time period of 1774–2013 CE. The Ca2+ record reveals quasi-decadal variability with a generally increasing trend. Using multiple regression analysis, we found a statistically significant spatial correlation of the Elbrus Ca2+ summer concentrations with precipitation and soil moisture content in the Levant region (specifically Syria and Iraq). The Ca2+ record also correlates with drought indices in North Africa (r=0.67, p<0.001) and Middle East regions (r=0.71, p<0.001). Dust concentrations prominently increase in the ice core over the past 200 years, confirming that the recent droughts in the Fertile Crescent (1998–2012 CE) present the most severe aridity experienced in at least the past two centuries. For the most recent 33 years recorded (1979–2012 CE), significant correlations exist between Ca2+ and Pacific circulation indices (Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Southern Oscillation Index and Niño 4), which suggests that the increased frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events due to a warming climate has extended their influence to the Middle East. Evidence demonstrates that the increase in Ca2+ concentration in the ice core cannot be attributed to human activities, such as coal combustion and cement production.
Highlights
Dust is the most important aerosol emitted to the atmosphere by mass (Knippertz & Stuut, 2014)
Dust concentration in the atmosphere depends on specific meteorological conditions, which may be influenced by large scale circulation patterns (e.g. ENSO, NAO)
Long term trends are controlled by changes in precipitation and vegetation cover in dust source regions, with the vegetation cover being dependent on both natural
Summary
Dust is the most important aerosol emitted to the atmosphere by mass (Knippertz & Stuut, 2014). Climate aerosol model simulations with the ability to separate natural and anthropogenic dust sources show that there was a 25% increase in dust emissions between the 19th century and today. Records of past changes in dust concentrations are essential to better constrain connections between dust emissions and both 15 natural and anthropogenic environmental changes. In this respect, proxy data is vital. We report changes in Ca2+ concentrations recorded in the Elbrus ice core between 1774-2012 CE and connections with natural variability, climatic and land use changes in the dust source regions
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