The Elasticity of Foreign Demand for U.S. Agricultural Products: The Importance of the Price Transmission Elasticity

Abstract

Johnson and Tweeten (1967, 1977) have provided estimates of the elasticity of export demand for specific agricultural commodities and aggregate agricultural exports. These estimates indicate the aggregate export demand for U.S. agricultural commodities is very elastic with respect to price, and the estimated elasticity is somewhat greater than 6.0 in both cases. The elasticities of export demand for specific commodities are also very large, ranging from -2.8 for soybeans to 10.18 for feed grains (Johnson). Theoretically, the elasticity of export demand may be quite large. However, the Johnson-Tweeten estimates do not consider government policies which insulate domestic producers and consumers from external price fluctuations. In order to study the effect of these policies on the elasticity of export demand, we (a) examine the formulation of the elasticity of export demand and the implication of price insulation policies, (b) review the trade policies of major importers and competing exporters, and (c) calculate the export demand elasticities for major agricultural commodities which incorporate price insulation policies. These export demand elasticities are much smaller than those of Johnson and