Abstract
This research aims to predict the efficiency of the Sustainable Development Policy for Energy Consumption under Environmental Law in Thailand for the next 17 years (2020–2036) and analyze the relationships among causal factors by applying a structural equation modeling/vector autoregressive model with exogenous variables (SEM-VARIMAX Model). This model is effective for analyzing relationships among causal factors and optimizing future forecasting. It can be applied to contexts in different sectors, which distinguishes it from other previous models. Furthermore, this model ensures the absence of heteroskedasticity, multicollinearity, and autocorrelation. In fact, it meets all the standards of goodness of fit. Therefore, it is suitable for use as a tool for decision-making and planning long-term national strategies. With the implementation of the Sustainable Development Policy for Energy Consumption under Environmental Law ( S . D . E L ) , the forecast results derived from the SEM-VARIMAX Model indicate a continuously high change in energy consumption from 2020 to 2036the change exceeds the rate determined by the government. In addition, energy consumption is predicted to have an increased growth rate of up to 185.66% (2036/2020), which is about 397.08 ktoe (2036). The change is primarily influenced by a causal relationship that contains latent variables, namely, the economic factor ( E C O N ) , social factor ( S O C I ) , and environmental factor ( E N V I ) . The performance of the SEM-VARIMAX Model was tested, and the model produced a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 1.06% and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 1.19%. A comparison of these results with those of other models, including the multiple linear regression model (MLR), back-propagation neural network (BP model), grey model, artificial neural natural model (ANN model), and the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA model), indicates that the SEM-VARIMAX model fits and is appropriate for long-term national policy formulation in various contexts in Thailand. This study’s results further indicate the low efficiency of Sustainable Development Policy for Energy Consumption under Environmental Law in Thailand. The predicted result for energy consumption in 2036 is greater than the government-established goal for consumption of no greater than 251.05 ktoe.
Highlights
Sustainable development policy has been given increasingly serious attention around the world.It is used side by side to define national strategies of various countries for different time scales; short-term, medium-term and long-term [1,2,3]
Policy for Energy Consumption under Environmental Law (S.D.EL), the forecast results derived from the structural equation modeling (SEM)-VARIMAX Model indicate a continuously high change in energy consumption from 2020 to
The change is primarily influenced by a causal relationship that contains latent variables, namely, the economic factor (ECON ), social factor (SOCI ), and environmental factor (ENVI )
Summary
Sustainable development policy has been given increasingly serious attention around the world.It is used side by side to define national strategies of various countries for different time scales; short-term, medium-term and long-term [1,2,3]. Energies 2019, 12, 3092 management policy and legislation is required, especially integrating and incorporating environmental law in order to achieve long-run sustainability [6,7,8]. The government is given the role of managing the environment under Article 57, and protecting it under Article 58 This version of the constitution provides a new provision to guarantee the rights of the people and community toward the environment under Article 43, as well as grant the right to charge the government or government agencies with the responsibility for protecting the environment under Article 41. While the National Environmental Quality Promotion and Preservation Act (Version 2) B.E. 2561 [9] comes with a significant focus on the formulation of environmental protection policies, as follows: (1) promoting the participation of people and NGOs in protecting the environment, Articles 6 to 8;
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