The efficacy of tropical and extratropical predictors for long‐lead El Niño‐Southern Oscillation prediction: A study using a machine learning algorithm

Abstract

AbstractThis study illustrates the considerable improvement in accuracy achievable for long‐lead forecasts (18 months) of the Ocean Niño Index (ONI) through the utilization of a long short‐term memory (LSTM) machine learning algorithm. The research assesses the predictive potential of eight predictors from both tropical and extratropical regions constructed based on sea surface temperature, outgoing longwave radiation, sea surface height and zonal and meridional wind anomalies. In comparison to linear regression model forecasts, the LSTM model outperforms them for both the tropical and extratropical predictor sets. Among all the predictors, the western North Pacific (WNP) index demonstrates the highest prediction skill in ONI forecasts, followed by the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) index and then the sea surface height index. While other predictors help the LSTM model to forecast either the phase variation of the amplitude variation of the observed ONI, the extratropical WNP predictor enables the LSTM model to forecast both variations. This superiority can be attributed to the involvement of SST anomalies in the WNP region in both tropical and extratropical El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics, allowing for the utilization of predictive potential from both components of ENSO dynamics. The study also concludes that the extratropical ENSO dynamics provide a robust source of predictability for long‐lead ENSO forecasts, which can be effectively harnessed using the LSTM model.