The Efficacy of Machine Learning Models for Predicting the Prognosis of Heart Failure: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Abstract

Introduction: Heart failure (HF) is a major global public health concern. The application of machine learning (ML) to identify individuals at high risk and enable early intervention is a promising approach for improving HF prognosis. We aim to systematically evaluate the performance and value of ML models for predicting HF prognosis. Methods: PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, and Embase online databases were searched up to April 30, 2023, to identify studies on the use of ML models to predict HF prognosis. HF prognosis primarily encompasses readmission and mortality. The meta-analysis was conducted by MedCalc software. Subgroup analyses include grouping based on types of ML models, time intervals, sample sizes, the number of predictive variables, validation methods, whether to conduct hyperparameter optimization and calibration, data set partitioning methods. Results: A total of 31 studies were included. The most common ML models were random forest, boosting, support vector machine, neural network. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for predicting HF readmission was 0.675 (95% CI: 0.651–0.699, p < 0.001), and the AUC for predicting HF mortality was 0.790 (95% CI: 0.765–0.816, p < 0.001). Subgroup analyses revealed that models with the prediction time interval of 1 year, sample sizes ≥10,000, the number of predictive variables ≥100, external validation, hyperparameter tuning, calibration adjustment, and data set partitioning using 10-fold cross-validation exhibited favorable performance within their respective subgroups. Conclusion: The performance of ML models in predicting HF readmission is relatively poor, while its performance in predicting HF mortality is moderate. The quality of the relevant studies is generally low, it is essential to enhance the predictive capabilities of ML models through targeted improvements in practical applications.