The Efficacy of ACH in Mitigating Serial Position Effects and Confirmation Bias in an Intelligence Analysis Scenario1

Abstract

Chapter three provides details of an experimental study conducted in 2016 to provide an evaluation of the efficacy of ACH in mitigating the cognitive biases of serial position effects and confirmation bias using the scoring systems of credibility of information and diagnostic value of information. The study is based on a disguised version of the intelligence case for both the biological and nuclear weapons capabilities of Saddam Hussein’s regime that was used to support the US decision to invade Iraq in 2003. The study shows that the version of ACH taught by the PHIA to the UK’s intelligence community between 2016-2017 has no statistically significant mitigating effect on the occurrence of serial position effects or confirmation bias.