The effects on deforestation of conditional cash transfers: a study among the Khĩsêtjê Amazonian indigenous people

Abstract

Smallholders' contribution to Amazonian deforestation is currently increasing. In Indigenous Lands, changes in land uses might be partially due to the unintended effects of anti-poverty strategies, including the Conditional Cash Transfers (CCTs), which may promote the conversion of forests to agricultural lands. Despite that, little is known about whether and how CCTs affect long-term deforestation rates. Thus, this study has assessed whether CCTs influenced long-term land-use changes from forests to agriculture, considering alternative time allocation assumptions (i.e., Time Optimisation and Time Budget). Transfers from the Brazilian Bolsa Família Program to the Khĩsêtjê indigenous people of the Amazon were evaluated with two agent-based models. Results suggest CCTs will likely decrease the area deforested in the long term without changing Khĩsêtjê's population size. When market-purchased products replace local products, people's time allocated to agriculture is expected to fall. The intensity of CCT effects on deforestation varied according to time allocation assumptions, highlighting the importance of considering them carefully to improve the predictions from model simulations.