Abstract
Detailed analysis of continuous time-series data from regions undergoing rapid urbanization can accurately reveal spatial variations on short time scales. This study used the city of Changchun in Jilin Province, China, as a case study to analyze total and annual changes in area—especially decreases in rural settlement area—as well as regional differences in these changes and driving forces of rural settlement evolution. Quantitative analytical techniques include a dynamic percentage of rural settlements, the distribution index of rural settlements, the regression correlation analysis, and other spatial analysis methods. Data were derived from a variety of sources, including land-use databases and social and economic statistics. The results show that the area of rural settlements decreased between 2009 and 2014, with the urban construction land expansion and decreases in cultivated lands. Rural settlements also became increasingly fragmented after 2009. Most of the rural settlements were located close to the urban construction land, and changes in rural settlement area were more pronounced with decreasing distance to the closest urban construction land, illustrating the effect of urban sprawl on rural settlement changes. The analysis also shows that the decreasing area of rural settlements between 2009 and 2014 is directly caused by urban sprawl. Regional development strategies and urban planning indirectly contribute to changes in the scale and spatial distribution of rural settlements by guiding urban development. The geographical environment and strict cultivated-land-protection policies also indirectly restrict changes in rural settlements by determining the restrictive area of urban expansion. No significant changes were found in the influence of population change on changing areas of rural settlements. In conclusion, the interaction of strategy for social-economic development, natural geography environments, and human demand jointly caused changes in rural settlements.
Highlights
As rural populations inhabit rural settlements, the characteristics of these areas are the result of interactions between human activities and the natural environment [1]
The area of rural settlements located within the scope of 1000 meters of urban construction lands always decreased during the years 2009–2014
Variability of rural settlement area in 2009–2012 was larger than in 2012–2014. These results show that changes in rural settlements are affected by the speed of urban expansion, and clearly illustrate the effect of urban sprawl on the spatial evolution of rural settlements
Summary
As rural populations inhabit rural settlements, the characteristics of these areas are the result of interactions between human activities and the natural environment [1]. Under the guidance of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change Project (LUCC) and Global Land Project (GLP), rural settlement land-use change and its driving forces have always been of considerable interest [2,3,4,5,6,7] Research in this area has primarily focused on the following themes: (1) the temporal and spatial evolution of rural settlements and its driving forces [8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16]; (2) the contradiction between decreasing rural populations and increasing rural settlements, as well as the optimal allocation of rural settlement land-use (e.g., hollow villages, land-consolidation-potentiality) [17,18,19,20,21,22,23]; and (3) the influence of changing land use and land cover on the local landscape, regional environment, and global environment [15,24,25,26,27]. In-depth studies of rural settlement trends, and the driving forces behind these changes in areas undergoing rapid urbanization, make it easier to accurately define regional land-use issues and guide management decisions for rural land use
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