The effects of three types of China's official turnover on air quality: A regression discontinuity study

Abstract

AbstractAir pollution control has been incorporated into the performance appraisal system of local officials in China. It is necessary to explore the underlying reasons behind China's air pollution. In this study, we measure the effects of different types of official turnover (OT) on air quality using a sharp regression discontinuity model, and collect the appointment information of mayors and municipal party secretaries from 333 cities in China between December 2013 and January 2018. Results show: (a) OT leads to a significant increase in air pollution discharges and this result remains valid after a series of robustness checks; (b) the level of air pollution increases when newly appointed officials are from the local district; (c) officials promoted from other districts tend to break the existing political connections and do not aggravate local air pollution; (d) when officials come from the central government, they often do not take any actions to control air pollution; (e) from the perspective of heterogeneity, we find that frequency of turnover, ex‐officials, and the age, place of birth, and region of the officials have a heterogeneous impact on the officials' behavior. These findings shed new light on the determinants of air quality and suggest that OT is important in controlling air pollution.