The Effects of the Early Trump Presidency on Public Attitudes Toward the Republican Party

Abstract

Presidents from Truman through Obama have influenced their party's popularity, reputation for competence, presumed policy commitments, appeal as an object of identification, and electoral performance. Despite Donald Trump's singularly unorthodox campaign and early presidency, survey data available for his first 15 months in office suggest that opinions of his performance are having at least as large an impact as that of his predecessors' on affect toward his party generally and its congressional wing in particular, as well as on its reputation for handling at least one policy domain (health care). Trump also appears to be widening the demographic and cultural differences between ordinary Republicans and Democrats, exacerbating the gender, age, and racial gaps between the party coalitions in a way that threatens the long‐term vitality of his party. Generic House election polls pointing to 2018 suggest that if his approval ratings remain at or below 40 percent, as they have through the first quarter of 2018, Democrats have excellent prospects for winning control of the House.