The Effects of the Clock and Kickoff Rule Changes on Actual and Market-Based Expected Scoring in NCAA Football

Kenneth Linna,Evan Moore,Andrew Weinbach,Rodney Paul

doi:10.3390/ijfs2020179

Abstract

Clock rule changes were introduced in the 2006 season with the goal of reducing the average duration of the game; these changes were reversed in 2007. In addition, in 2007 the kickoff rule was changed to create more excitement and potentially more scoring. We examine what happened to actual and expected scoring during these National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) football seasons. The clock rule change in 2006 led to lower scoring which was not fully encompassed in the betting market, leading to significant returns to betting the under. Multiple rule changes in 2007 led to volatility in the betting market that subsided by season’s end.

Highlights

Introduction and Literature ReviewRegulation and rule changes are instituted in business and in sports for a variety of reasons
This paper presents results concerning the effects of National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) Football rule changes in 2006 and 2007 on total scoring, scoring margin, and competitiveness of the games
The results reveal that the clock rule changes instituted in the 2006 season and the kickoff rule change that began with the 2007 season had an effect on scoring in Division I Football Bowl

Summary

Introduction and Literature Review

Regulation and rule changes are instituted in business and in sports for a variety of reasons. Overall scoring increased by nearly a goal-per-game, but the betting market over-adjusted early in the season This led to profitable returns for under bettors [23]. We study if the rule changes had the anticipated impact on scoring by investigating total points scored (actual scoring) and the betting market total on the game (expected scoring). This paper presents results concerning the effects of NCAA Football rule changes in 2006 and 2007 on total scoring, scoring margin, and competitiveness of the games These results are compared to what happened in the financial (betting) market for college football totals.

Actual Scoring and Outcomes

Financial Market Expectations and Outcomes

Discussion and Conclusions