Abstract
After more than two decades of negotiation, the China–Russia gas deal represents a new era of energy cooperation between China and Russia. In total, this is a win–win deal for both sides. For China, the deal will decrease energy consumption and carbon emission but will not significantly influence air quality; for Russia, it will provide a new market for its gas resources. In this study, we calculated the energy consumption, carbon emission, and particulate matter pollution (PM2.5 and PM10) in China in 2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050 under four IPCC representative concentration pathways (RCPs 8.5, 6.0, 4.5, and 2.6). We found that energy consumption and carbon emission decreased under the gas deal in RCPs 8.5, 6.0, and 4.5, although the rate of decrease slowed over time; however, in RCP 2.6, the rate of decrease of energy consumption and emission increased over time. PM2.5 and PM10 emission showed similar trends but with increasing rate, although the gas deal would mitigate air pollution in the short term. Although China’s government hopes to reduce carbon and pollutant emission under the deal, our results suggest that additional mitigation measures will be necessary to achieve this goal. Nonetheless, the reduction in carbon emission suggests that the China–Russia gas deal provides a model that other countries can follow to slow climate change.
Highlights
On 21 May 2014, Russian energy giant Gazprom and the ChinaNational Petroleum Corporation signed a historic gas supply agreement in the presence of President Vladimir Putin of Russia and President Xi Jinping of China.[1]
We examined China’s historical energy structure, predicted the impacts of the China–Russia gas deal in 2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050 under four Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)
Compared to PM10, PM2.5 is of more concern owing to its smaller size, longer atmospheric lifetime and greater health risks.[21]
Summary
On 21 May 2014, Russian energy giant Gazprom and the ChinaNational Petroleum Corporation signed a historic gas supply agreement in the presence of President Vladimir Putin of Russia and President Xi Jinping of China.[1]. Russia is aiming to diversify its export destinations in Asia to decrease its dependence on European markets, after the imposition of sanctions in response to Russia’s involvement in the Ukraine crisis.[2] At the same time, China is eager to improve its energy structure to incorporate more clean fuels and reduce greenhouse gas emission, since natural gas produces lower emission than coal or petroleum.[3] The increasing role of gas in China’s energy structure is supposed to contribute to mitigating global climate change. This agreement is supposed to be a good example of the importance of cross-boundary energy treaties for mitigating climate change.[4]
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