Abstract

Given the striking effects of the recent financial turmoil, and the importance of value and growth portfolios for both local and international portfolio allocation, we investigate the effects of systemic jumps on the optimal portfolio investment strategies across value and growth equity portfolios. We find that the cost of ignoring systemic jumps is not substantial, unless the portfolio is highly levered and the average size amplitude of the jump is large enough. From the optimal asset allocation point of view, it seems more important the effects of few but relatively large jumps than highly frequent but small jumps. Indeed, the period in which the value premium is higher coincides with a period of few, but large and positive average size jumps for value stocks, and negative and very large average size jumps for growth stocks.

Highlights

  • The value premium is one of the most relevant anomalies discussed in the asset pricing literature

  • Given the striking effects of the recent financial turmoil, and the importance of value and growth portfolios for both local and international portfolio allocation, we investigate the effects of systemic jumps on the optimal portfolio investment strategies across value and growth equity portfolios

  • The period in which the value premium is higher coincides with a period of few, but large and positive average size jumps for value stocks, and negative and very large average size jumps for growth stocks

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Summary

Introduction

The value premium is one of the most relevant anomalies discussed in the asset pricing literature. We find that the effects of systemic jumps are not negligible from 1982 to 1997 for low levels of risk aversion (highly levered portfolios) when the frequency of jumps is small but its average size is large This period is characterized by an especially large value premium. This section first present a model of asset equity returns which is based on the asset pricing model proposed in [6] This model introduces systemic risk by imposing jumps that occur simultaneously across all assets and allowing for a varying distribution of the jump size across all portfolios. We discuss optimal portfolio allocation given that the underlying assets follow a jumpdiffusion process with systemic jumps We compare these results relative to the case in which asset returns follow a pure diffusion process

Asset Equity Returns and Systemic Risk
Portfolio Allocation
Certainty Equivalent Cost
The Estimation Procedure to Analyze the Effects of Systemic Risk
The Characteristic Function
Unconditional Moments
Empirical Results
Parameter Estimates for the Jump-Diffusion Return Process
Portfolio Weights
Riskless Risky
Certainty Equivalent Costs
Sample Average Riskless Rate
Specification Tests with a Pre-Specified Weighting Matrix
Conclusions
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