The effects of super spreading events and movement control measures on the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia

Lai Chee Herng,Tan Cia Vei,Balvinder Singh Gill,Ahmed Syahmi Syafiq Md Zamri,Sarbhan Singh,Hishamshah Ibrahim,Sarat Chandra Dass,Bala Murali Sundram,Tahir Aris,Noor Hisham Abdullah

doi:10.1038/s41598-022-06341-1

Lai Chee Herng, Tan Cia Vei + Show 8 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-06341-1

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Abstract

This paper aims to develop an automated web application to generate validated daily effective reproduction numbers (Rt) which can be used to examine the effects of super-spreading events due to mass gatherings and the effectiveness of the various Movement Control Order (MCO) stringency levels on the outbreak progression of COVID-19 in Malaysia. The effective reproduction number, Rt, was estimated by adopting and modifying an Rt estimation algorithm using a validated distribution mean of 3.96 and standard deviation of 4.75 with a seven-day sliding window. The Rt values generated were validated using thea moving window SEIR model with a negative binomial likelihood fitted using methods from the Bayesian inferential framework. A Pearson’s correlation between the Rt values estimated by the algorithm and the SEIR model was r = 0.70, p < 0.001 and r = 0.81, p < 0.001 during the validation period The Rt increased to reach the highest values at 3.40 (95% CI 1.47, 6.14) and 1.72 (95% CI 1.54, 1.90) due to the Sri Petaling and Sabah electoral process during the second and third waves of COVID-19 respectively. The MCOs was able to reduce the Rt values by 63.2 to 77.1% and 37.0 to 47.0% during the second and third waves of COVID-19, respectively. Mass gathering events were one of the important drivers of the COVID-19 outbreak in Malaysia. However, COVID-19 transmission can be fuelled by noncompliance to Standard Operating Procedure, population mobility, ventilation and environmental factors.

Highlights

This paper aims to develop an automated web application to generate validated daily effective reproduction numbers (Rt) which can be used to examine the effects of super-spreading events due to mass gatherings and the effectiveness of the various Movement Control Order (MCO) stringency levels on the outbreak progression of COVID-19 in Malaysia
These events include disease spreading events or disease propagation events such as large gatherings and movements of populations, and disease control events which are the MCO stringency levels during the first, second and third wave of COVID-19 outbreak in Malaysia. These MCO levels were categorized into enhanced Movement Control Order (MCO) phases 1 to 3, conditional Movement Control Order (CMCO), and recovery Movement Control Order (RMCO) which was enforced from 18 March 2020 to 29 March 2 02114
This study has several strengths, first, we developed a web-based automated system that operates on Rt algorithms that was validated using computationally advantageous approaches (i.e. SEIR models and the existing Bayesian framework) to produce continuous, real-time Rt values which are context-specific for Malaysia at a national and state level

Summary

Introduction

This paper aims to develop an automated web application to generate validated daily effective reproduction numbers (Rt) which can be used to examine the effects of super-spreading events due to mass gatherings and the effectiveness of the various Movement Control Order (MCO) stringency levels on the outbreak progression of COVID-19 in Malaysia. As the COVID-19 pandemic progresses, several countries globally have reported super spreading events that have attributed to the exponential rise in COVID-19 cases[3,4] These events are likely to cause the observed sudden surge of cases due to increase disease transmission at mass gatherings and overcrowding events at particular localities[3,4,5]. A much larger second wave started on 27 February 2020, following a 4-day mass gathering at Sri Petaling, Kuala L umpur[10] This mass gathering resulted in a massive transmission of COVID-19 infection in Malaysia which subsequently caused the largest COVID-19 cluster during the second wave with 3375 confirmed cases with 34 deaths r eported[11,12]. To strike a balance between lives and livelihood, adjustments to the stringency of the MCO are carried out through continuous assessments of the available disease transmission indicators such as incidence rate, growth rate, doubling time, and reproduction number[15]

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