Abstract
Analysis of regional accident records shows that a country’s national road safety programme does not have the same effect in each of its regions. What may be a serious problem in one region may be of marginal significance in another. Polish and international experience shows that main risk groups and types of accidents related to the level of development and quality of the road network differ from region to region. The conclusion is that a centrally run road safety policy does not always produce the expected outcomes. This suggests that more can be achieved with a combination of strategic (national) road safety management and tactical (regional) and operational (local) road safety efforts. Poland’s regional road safety programmes were found to lack an analysis of the effects of selected factors on safety or fatality forecast based on mathematical models. This calls for a scientific tool to support regional road safety management. The article uses the example of the region of Łódź to present the main road safety problems, analyse safety based on risk assessment, present the effects of selected factors on road user safety and forecast fatalities for different scenarios of treatments.
Highlights
Poland continues to be the European Union’s worst performing country for its number of road fatalities compared to its population
The first analysis was designed to study the data for their mutual relations and effect on the variable being modelled, i.e. the relative road fatality rate RFR
The analysis shows that the regional data collected today do not provide a full insight into the regions’ social and traffic changes and there is no information on how people travel on the entire road network or on speed violations
Summary
Poland continues to be the European Union’s worst performing country for its number of road fatalities compared to its population. The demographic fatality rate was 7.3 fatalities per 100,000 population which is twice as bad as in the best performing countries (the Netherlands, Sweden, United Kingdom). This shows that any efforts to protect road users from injury or death should be given priority. The contemporary approach to safety distinguishes three integrated elements: infrastructure measures, safety management and safety culture. The process of safety management needs modern tools to help identify road user risks, estimate and assess road infrastructure safety and select effective safety treatments. The selection of safety measures must be preceded with an understanding of the effects of selected factors on road safety at different levels of management
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