The effects of rising labour costs on global supply chains: the case of China’s cotton yarn industry

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ABSTRACTRapid economic growth in China and India has resulted in rapidly rising labour costs in those countries. In this study a Muth-type model is used to assess the potential effects of this development on global supply chains using China’s cotton yarn industry as a case study. The model considers i) product differentiation at the yarn level; ii) imperfect competition in the markets for cotton yarn and raw cotton fibre, iii) input substitution between raw cotton fibre, labour, and capital; and iv) offsetting increases in the demand for cotton yarn caused by rising consumer income. Results suggest the effects of rising labour costs on the supply chain are modest, and easily swamped or obscured by the effects of rising income. Increases in industry market power (both oligopoly and oligopsony) have the same effect on the supply chain as increases in labour costs, raising prices to consumers of cotton yarn, and lowering prices to input suppliers, including foreign suppliers of raw cotton fibre. The combined effects of increases in labour costs and income have increased the factor shares for labour and to a lesser extent capital at the expense of raw cotton fibre.