The effects of public health insurance in labor markets with informal jobs: Evidence from Mexico

Abstract

This paper studies the labor market effects of the most significant public health insurance expansion in the Americas: Mexico's Seguro Popular (SP). To identify its impact, I exploit the staggered rollout of SP across municipalities. I find that SP increases labor supply by reducing the likelihood of informal workers exiting the labor market. This reduction is driven by women, who experience a 15% decrease in the probability of transitioning from informal employment to inactivity. I also find that this reduction is concentrated among female secondary earners residing in households with dependents. These findings suggest that SP may operate through a novel channel, namely that health insurance enables caregivers to continue working by reducing health shocks among dependents.